overconfidence as cognitive appendix

ny times magazine reviews the book "overconfidence and war" this week. author dominic johnson questions why leaders are often overconfident in their nation's warring capabilities. overconfidence in battle served the evolutionary purpose of scaring one's opponent into submission.

Military overconfidence, in other words, is a psychological holdover -- a cognitive appendix -- from an earlier period in human history. It is perhaps most dangerous when it prompts a decision for war in the first place.

overconfidence has been rendered obsolete by modern technology and bureaucracy, johnson argues. one doesn't intimidate opponents with a strong battle cry anymore. but my favorite line is this:

[A] cocky disposition is as likely to be suicidal as it is glorious.

that might be as true in war as it is in peace.

Labels: decision making