natural selection at work

for those who don't believe in evolution, here's some good evidence of its mechanism:

Joe McGee stands in the pounding surf at the Southern Most Point in Key West, Fla. Tuesday, Sept. 20, 2005, as Hurricane Rita neared the lower Florida Keys. (AP)

this reminds me of people who rushed to mount saint helens last year when everyone thought it may blow its top. the motivations for rushing to the scene of a potential natural disaster are a bit different than what is going on here, though. here people are staying in their homes, and the disaster is coming to them. risk judgments are involved in both cases, but in the latter other factors such as previous hurricane experience and overestimation of home construction play a role. in some situations, one could see overconfidence and flawed self-assessment as adaptive traits, helping individuals perform better. however, flawed assessment of one's ability to weather a storm is fatally dangerous, as we've seen with katrina or any number of other decisions (e.g., overestimating your body and making the decision to continue smoking).

it's also interesting to note that when forced to make decisions based solely on experience and memory people typically make much riskier decisions than when presented with written materials. this is not particularly surprising. and hurricane folks certainly aren't basing their decisions off of hurricane evacuation manuals. life insurance companies would do well to mail those to their costal clientele.

aside: rita is a truly terrible name. homes in houston deserve better.

update: just fixing the picture

Labels: decision making, social